Caldecott Medal Predictions 2026

As librarians and educators look ahead to the next awards season, I’ve gathered my personal predictions for the books that could rise to the top when the Caldecott Medal is announced on Monday, January 26, 2026. This watchlist reflects early buzz, standout illustration work, and the type of visual storytelling that often capture the committee’s attention. Think of it as a starting point for exploring the picture books generating excitement in the year ahead.

Cranky, Crabby Crow (Saves the World) by Corey R. Tabor

Crow is known for being cranky, brushing off every friendly greeting with a sharp “KAW.” But his grumpiness hides a surprising secret: Crow is actually on call for an important mission. When a red phone rings, he slips underground and into a hidden spaceship. His task? Save Earth from an incoming asteroid. Tabor’s expressive artwork and comedic timing give this humorous hero story both charm and emotional depth.

The Polar Bear and the Ballerina by Eric Velasquez

This wordless picture book follows a ballerina who discovers an unexpected connection with a polar bear at the zoo. The story is told through movement, expressions, and beautiful changes in perspective that show their growing bond. Readers get to fill in the feelings and meaning themselves, which makes the experience personal. The dreamy, cinematic illustrations pull you in and encourage you to slow down and take in every detail. This is a title that rewards slow reading and close observation.

The Hole by Lindsay Bonilla & Brízida Magro

This imaginative story begins with the discovery of a mysterious hole that sparks curiosity and adventure. The illustrations play with scale, perspective, and visual humor to follow where the hole might lead or what it might mean. Themes of exploration and open-ended discovery make it especially appealing for classrooms that encourage inquiry. Magro’s artwork adds a whimsical tone that keeps the story light and engaging. It’s the kind of conceptual picture book that often attracts Caldecott attention.

Dawn by Marc Martin

Dawn celebrates early-morning light and all the little wonders that appear as the world slowly wakes up. Marc Martin’s textured, atmospheric artwork beautifully captures shifting skies, soft colors, and the peaceful feel of a new day. The story encourages readers to slow down, take a breath, and notice details they might normally miss. Its calm tone and rich visuals make it a great pick for quiet moments in classrooms or libraries. With its mood and artistry, it definitely feels like a strong award contender.

Ellie Has a Secret by Amelia Bothe

Ellie has a secret, and she’s not sure what to do with it. The story follows her as she works through the feelings that come with keeping something to herself and wondering when, or if, she should share it. Amelia Bothe’s illustrations gently highlight Ellie’s emotions through expressive faces and body language. Kids will easily connect with her experience, making this a great pick for SEL conversations. Its quiet, heartfelt approach and unified storytelling give it the feel of a potential award standout.

Anything by Rebecca Stead & Gracey Zhang

This book brings together Rebecca Stead’s thoughtful storytelling and Gracey Zhang’s expressive, emotionally rich artwork. It explores imagination, possibility, and the wide-open worlds kids create when they’re free to dream big. Zhang’s illustrations add a sense of movement and wonder that pairs beautifully with the text. The way the words and images work together invites readers to pause, reflect, and even start meaningful conversations.

Wind Watchers by Micha Archer

In Wind Watchers, the changing seasons bring all kinds of breezes, and a curious family of children loves asking the wind, “How will you blow today?” Sometimes it answers with soft, playful gusts that cool their skin and make them laugh. Other days, it arrives with wilder force, sending hats flying and everyone rushing for cover. No matter what form it takes, the wind remains a constant source of wonder for these young observers. With textured collage artwork and lyrical writing, this whimsical picture book celebrates the beauty, unpredictability, and magic of the natural world.

How Sweet the Sound by Kwame Alaxender

This book highlights the sounds and stories that helped shape America, focusing on the strength, creativity, and resilience found in Black music. Readers will recognize voices like Billie Holiday and Louis Armstrong, along with the powerful energy of artists such as James Brown and Grandmaster Flash. More than 80 musical references, from Robert Johnson and Ella Fitzgerald to Jimi Hendrix, Whitney Houston, Lauryn Hill, and Beyoncé, invite readers to explore an incredible artistic legacy. Kwame Alexander’s storytelling, paired with Charly Palmer’s bold and colorful artwork, creates an engaging look at how Black music has influenced culture and history.

Every Monday Mabel by Jashar Awan

This story follows Mabel through her weekly Monday routine, highlighting the small, meaningful moments that shape her day. The narrative uses repetition and gentle humor to show how ordinary experiences can feel special. Illustrations emphasize subtle emotions and relatable childhood details. It’s a quiet story with strong character focus, making it a good fit for SEL and classroom discussions. Its understated artistry may make it a dark-horse contender.

Stalactite and Stalagmite : a Big Tale From a Little Cave by Drew Beckmeyer

This humorous and quietly profound picture book follows two tiny cave formations – Stalactite and Stalagmite – as they witness the sweep of Earth’s history. Drip by drip, the years pass, and an extraordinary parade of creatures moves through their cave: trilobites, early amphibians, dinosaurs, giant sloths, bats, and more. Though they remain rooted in place, the two nubs find comfort and companionship in each other’s steady presence. But as the millennia shape them, one question grows along with their limestone bodies: what will it mean when they finally reach out far enough to touch? Fans of Oliver Jeffers, Jon Klassen, and Mac Barnett will appreciate this blend of wit, wonder, and geological storytelling.

Fireworks by Matthew Burgess

This book is a celebration of summer from the award-winning duo Matthew Burgess and Catia Chien, capturing the small joys of a hot July day as two siblings look forward to the night’s big display. As the heat of the afternoon melts into evening, neighbors gather on stoops and sidewalks, all eyes turned upward in anticipation. Then, POP! The first burst lights up the sky. Burgess’s lyrical text and Chien’s glowing illustrations bloom together like fireworks themselves, making this a delightful read for anyone who loves the magic of the Fourth of July, whether in the city or the suburbs.

Our Lake by Angie King

Our Lake invites readers on a quiet, immersive journey around a lake, observing its waters, the creatures that inhabit it, and the changing seasons. The narrative likely emphasizes connection to nature, stewardship, and the peaceful rhythms of lakeside life. Through gentle prose and thoughtful pacing, the book encourages reflection on the natural world and our relationship to it. It’s well suited for classrooms or storytimes focused on ecology, environment, or mindfulness, and has the kind of serene beauty that often appeals to Caldecott–style recognition.

Where the Deer Slip Through by Katey Howes

Where the Deer Slip Through follows a quiet deer as it moves through forests and wild places, giving readers a peek into the gentle rhythms of life in the woods. The story uses soft, lyrical language to draw you into the sounds and sights of nature—the rustling leaves, the quick flashes of movement, and the peaceful moments in between. The illustrations add to the calm, cozy feel, making the forest feel alive and welcoming. It’s a sweet, nature-filled read that celebrates wildlife and the spaces they call home.

The World’s Best Class Plant by Audrey Vernick & Liz Garton Scanlon; illustrated by Lynnor Bontigao

This humorous and heartfelt classroom story follows a group of students tasked with caring for a class plant that seems remarkably unimpressive. But as the days pass, the children discover how much life, learning, and community can grow from something small. Bontigao’s warm, expressive illustrations capture the chaos and charm of a lively classroom. Themes of responsibility, teamwork, and noticing the unnoticed shine through the artwork. It’s a joyful, kid-centered book with strong visual storytelling.

My Predictions

I found it tougher than usual to narrow down my predictions this year. The field feels especially strong, with so many standout books showcasing incredible art and storytelling. Honestly, if I were sitting on the Caldecott committee, I’d have an almost impossible time making a final decision. Each of these titles brings something unique to the table, and that’s what makes this year’s lineup so exciting.

• The Hole
• Where the Deer Slip Through
• Dawn
• Ellie Has a Secret

What books do you think should win the Caldecott? Leave a comment and let us know.